Football betting lovers always strive to try and apply winning betting strategies in order to maximize their profit. All strategies vary by type, budget and betting markets but there is one thing that is common for all of them – the odds. Generally speaking, you will find odds not only for football betting markets but for all sports betting including NBA, NHL, Golf, UFC/MMA and even Formula 1.

1. Probability Theory Football Betting
2. Probability In Football Betting System
3. Best Online Football Betting Site

• It's imperative to use live NFL odds for every spread, total and money line for the games in a given week. If the number is positive, then you bet $100 to win that amount. If the number is negative, you have to wager that amount to win $100.Sometimes.
• Probability of outcomes for every football match. Best artificial intelligence 🧠 match prediction with the best free football tips. Football betting tips based on such a system allow you to stake like a.

Each sports betting event will have a certain outcome – in the end, there will be a winner and a second-placed team (may vary depending on the sport). However, since all sports are a game of skill, participants have a different chance of winnings. In a simple way, the betting odds represent the chance of a certain outcome to happen. In the next few paragraphs, together we will learn what betting odds mean and how they work, how to read and how to understand football odds.

Bet365 Football Betting Odds

Bet365 is one of the best betting sites not only in the UK but all around the world. The bookie gives you the opportunity to bet on more than hundreds of thousands sports events each year while providing generous odds. At Bet365 you will find hundreds of betting markets to choose from, including Bet Builder that allows you to form your personal bet at extremely high and competitive betting odds.

Football betting comparing the best odds across all the major leagues and worldwide. Use our coupons to create an acca in seconds and place your bet.

Since bet365 is a leader in the gaming industry, you can not only place bets on today’s events but also long-term outright betting odds. Have a look at our dedicated odds comparison tool below, featuring outright bets from the biggest football competitions around the world. We update our odds daily and show you only the latest football betting odds. Tap on the event you are interested in and you will be redirected to a dedicated page on our website featuring Title Winner Odds, Top 4 Finish Odds, Promotion Odds, Goalscorer Odds and more.

How do Odds Work in Football and Sports Betting?

In order to understand football betting odds, first, we will have to explain what is a chance. Traditionally, a chance is the possibility of one outcome in a certain event. Usually, we measure the chance in percentages, with the sum of all possible outcomes resulting in 100%. The best football bettors usually have outstanding odds to chance calculation and have no trouble reading betting odds. It is important to remember that in sports betting, the odds don’t add up to 100%. Let me explain that in detail below.

For example, if we flip a coin in the air, there are only two possible outcomes. The coin will land either on heads or on tails. There will be an equal 50% chance of both outcomes to happen. In football betting, the alternative for that type of an event is the Over 2.5 Goals market. Imagine a football game is played between evenly matched opponents. Again, the event has just two outcomes – either there will be three or more goals scored or the game will end with less than three scored goals.

In a perfect world, the probability of both outcomes (Over or Under 2.5 Goals) equals 50%. However, instead of exact odds at 1/1 (2.00), bookies will give you odds of around 9/10 (1.90) because in betting odds don’t equal chance. The margin is used by the bookie to ensure that bettors will not have the opportunity of match betting and also to try and reduce eventually its losses from an unexpected outcome. If you understand how to make odds work in your favour and recalculate the real chance of a certain event to odds, you will find value in your bets and in theory will increase your long-term profit from betting.

Betting Odds Types

There are three different betting odds types accepted by bookies worldwide – Fractional Odds (also known as UK Odds, since they are mostly used in Great Britain), Decimal Odds (popular around Europe) and Moneyline Odds (used in the USA and Canada).

Decimal Odds Explained

Let’s start with the most popular type of odds, the decimal, which we also prefer on our website because of its simplicity. The Decimal odds are prefered by many because they are easy to understand and calculate possible winnings. You will find the decimal odds option as default in most bookmaker around the world, however the most reputable and well-known betting sites like Bet365 allow you to choose your prefered odds type via an option in your profile settings.

Imagine that the bookie offers us odds at 1.25 for our prefered outcome (let’s use Liverpool to win against Brighton). That odds represent 80% chance of that particular outcome to happen, also known as implied probability. The math is not that difficult. All you have to do is divide the odds to 100% – (100% / 1.25 = 80%). If you think that the chance of Liverpool beating Brighton equals 80% or more than placing that bet will provide value at odds 1.25 or more. In order to calculate winnings, you simply have to multiply your stake to the odds. For example, if we place $10 bet at odds 1.25, we will win $12.50, or in other words, our net win will be $2.50.

Fractional Odds Explained

Fractional odds are primarily used by bettors in the United Kingdom and usually set as default betting odds settings in most UK-oriented bookies. If we use the same example as above (1.25 decimal odds), fractional odds will represent 1/4. It is important to remember that fractions quote the potential profit should our bet succeed, relative to the stake, as opposed to the decimal odds.

For example, if our £10 is bet at odds of 1/4 the potential profit is calculated £2.5 ((£10/4) x 1) and the total returned is £12.50 (£2.50 plus the £10 stake). For odds 11/2 the calculation is £55 ((£10/2) x 11) and the total returned is £65 (£55 plus the £10 stake).

Moneyline Odds Explained

Moneyline odds are primarily used in the USA and therefore prefered by North America – oriented bookies. You will rarely see Moneyline odds (also known as American odds) as default in your favourite European bookies. At first glance, money line odds look difficult and tough to read, but in reality, they are not that really different from decimal and fractional odds. The only distinction between them is that American odds are represented by a positive sign (+) and a negative sign (-).

The odds for underdogs are accompanied by the positive sign, while the negative sign is for the favourite. In a simple way, Moneyline odds tell how much you have to stake in order to win 100% of your stake. Let’s use once again our initial example with Liverpool and Brighton. Since Liverpool is a favourite to win it will be represented by a negative sign. Decimal odds at 1.25, equaling to 1/4 in fractional odds, will be visible as -400 Moneyline odds. In order to win $100, we will have to stake $400. If you want to win $10, you will have to place a $40 bet. For each $1 won, you will have to stake $4. As I said, the math is very simple.

If you decide to bet on the underdog, you will have to reverse the calculation. Since the negative Moneyline odds represent how much to bet to win a 100% of our stake, the formula is a bit different (X+100)/X, with X representing the odds. In our example above, Brighton will have +550 Moneyline odds, which means for each $100 staked we will collect $550 if they actually do it. A $10 stake equals $55 profit, a $1 stake will win $5.5, and so on.

Conclusion

As you probably already realised, reading and understanding betting odds is not very complicated. The tricky part is to learn how to make the Implied Probability work in your favour. In order to be successful in football betting, you have to constantly find value bets with odds that are near to the expected possibility of each outcome.

This is not an easy task and requires a lot of hard work for research and years of experience. Our tipster aim to find value bets daily, which you can find at our page dedicated to Today’s Best Football Betting Tips. Placing bets in reputable UK Betting Sites that offer high odds is also necessary in order to maximize your profit.

As a fan, you don’t care if your team wins by a point or 100. A win is a win, though that 100-point win would be a little easier on the nerves.

In sports betting, how much a team wins by is usually all that matters.

Probability Theory Football Betting

The most popular way to bet for the two most popular sports, basketball and football, is with the point spread, also known as the “side.” Most baseball, hockey and soccer bets are on the moneyline, which is betting on a team to win straight up with adjusted odds. Football and basketball have moneyline bets available too, but most people will take the point spread.

Probability In Football Betting System

The concept can be a bit confusing if you’ve never dabbled in sports betting before.

Why bet with the point spread?

The point spread was created to attract more action on a game. When the San Francisco 49ers are expected to blow out the Arizona Cardinals, it’s not enticing to lay $300 to win $100 on a moneyline. But when the 49ers are 11-point favorites and each side is -110 odds? That’s much easier.

In that example, the 49ers are spotting the Cardinals 11 points before the game starts, at least for bettors. The 49ers have to win by 12 or more points to cover the spread. If the Cardinals win or lose by 10 or less, that side wins the bet. If the game lands on 11, like a 21-10 49ers win, it’s a push and all bets are refunded. If you see a -11 that means that team is favored, and +11 means you’re taking the underdog.

Nothing sharpens your math skills better than trying to figure out how big your lead as a bettor is if you have a 22.5-point basketball underdog that is losing 90-72.

The problem with the point spread can be when a team — which really doesn’t care that you bet the favorite at -11 — has a 14-point lead but gives up a meaningless score at the end to win by only seven points. They’re still happy with the win. You, as a bettor, are not.

Point spreads lead to bad beats

The most infamous example of a bad beat with the point spread probably came in the 2004 Final Four at the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

Duke was a 2.5-point underdog against UConn. The Huskies rallied late and took a 79-75 lead on a free throw with 3.2 seconds left. The game itself was over; Duke couldn’t score twice in a few seconds. But Duke guard Chris Duhon pulled up for a running 3-pointer just over the half-court line and banked it in at the buzzer. Duke lost 79-78, but bettors who had Duke and 2.5 points won. March Madness is a huge event for bettors, and reports at the time estimated that Duhon’s “meaningless” shot resulted in a $30 or $40 million swing in Nevada. UConn players celebrated at the final buzzer. UConn bettors doubled over in pain. That’s the difference between betting the moneyline and the point spread.

Baseball and hockey have point spreads too, the “run line” in baseball and “puck line” in hockey. It’s generally 1.5 with odds adjusting accordingly. Taking a big baseball favorite at -1.5 runs can make the odds more palatable. Of course, betting the New York Yankees at -1.5 to bring down the odds from -190 to -110 isn’t too fun when they win 4-3 and you don’t cash a bet.

Best Online Football Betting Site

Betting on the point spread is the most common way to wager on sports. And the first time you take a favorite that wins the game but doesn’t cover the spread, you’ll understand every bettor’s heartbreak.