Let’s use an example: Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Silva, Over 1.5 (+140)/Under 1.5 (-120). By looking at the line, you see that the under is the favorite, with the over being the underdog. It works like all money line wagers-the (+) sign, meaning underdog, indicating that’s how much you win if you bet $100. The over 1.5 rounds prop on UFC featherweight big favorites have won 7 out of the past 9 times. Knowing this, I would avoid betting the under 1.5 rounds prop when a matchup includes a featherweight big favorite. Are female big favorites more likely to cash the under than females that are not big favorites. A moneyline bet in the UFC is a wager picking which of the two fighters in a bout will win and is adjusted based on who is favored in the match. American moneyline odds are based on winning $100, so if Stipe Miocic is a -125 favorite, that means you need to risk $125 to win $100. If Daniel Cormier is a +130 underdog, you’ll win $130 if you risk $100. Wagering $100 on each bet is not.

Welcome to my betting breakdown for UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya! It feels like the UFC has the pedal to the metal in terms of their scheduling for the first quarter of 2021, and that certainly remains true this weekend with one of the best cards in the history of the promotion going down at the UFC Apex.

We have fifteen fights(!) as of Friday afternoon, including three title bouts to finish the night. In the main event, Israel Adesanya will look to make UFC history and obtain his second belt as he moves up to 205 pounds to take on light-heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz. In the co-main event, we have the consensus WMMA GOAT, Amanda Nunes, looking to defend her 145-pound title against Megan Anderson. And in the first title fight of the night, but perhaps the most anticipated, Petr Yan will try and defend his bantamweight title for the first time against top contender Aljamain Sterling. This is shaping up to be a massive card for me with nearly 11 units on the line. Let’s get it!

I’ll be writing this best-bets article weekly with extended breakdowns for up to three of my best bets while sometimes including some leans if I don’t have three plays. I will be in the FTNBets Discord for about two hours before the early prelims this weekend to answer any questions that subscribers may have. In addition to this article, Jon Kelly and I broke down this card on video from a DFS and betting perspective. You can find a podcast version for free or an archived version of our live stream on Twitter. We are also running a 25% off promo with code “259” at checkout for both FTNDaily and FTNBets.

Mario Bautista (-225) vs. Trevin Jones (+195)

Bautista came up short in his UFC debut in a very tough short notice assignment against Cory Sandhagen but has been impressive since then racking up back-to-back wins in exciting fights. Jones is a regional grinder who made the most of his UFC debut against Timur Valiev as a massive underdog. After nearly being finished in Round 1, Jones was able to win via KO in Round 2. Both of these guys are extremely tough and resilient, but I favor the pace and action-packed style of Bautista to win the curtain jerker. However, I don’t have much interest in laying -225 with a guy who’s as willing to brawl as Bautista is. This could be a lowkey banger of a scrap!

Uros Medic (-165) vs. Aalon Cruz (+145)

I’m not sure how I feel about Medic being a favorite within the UFC. He won in impressive fashion on the Contender Series and certainly has a decent kicking game with power in all four limbs, but Medic has some extremely concerning regional tape. He has virtually zero takedown defense and has some flukey wins off his back on the Alaskan Regional scene, which is not known for its stout level of competition. Medic will likely be a fade for me at some point, but I’m not sure that time will come this weekend against Cruz. Cruz is a fun striker who has good cardio and output, but his best attribute is probably his length and reach. Unfortunately, Cruz has no interest in using his reach to win fights and instead elects to crash the pocket against his opponents with a severe lack of defense. There’s probably value on Cruz, as we know he has the cardio and output to win decisions in addition to potential grappling upside here, but this is a very low-level fight that I’d rather just keep my money away from.

Amanda Lemos (-240) vs. Livinha Souza (+205)

This is probably my least anticipated fight of the evening and since we have so many fights, I didn’t spend too much time studying it. Lemos is certainly deserving of favorite status here with some clear physical advantages, but I can’t lay the -240 chalk in lower level WMMA, especially against Souza, who’s a pretty competent fighter in her own right. The line may be wide, but Souza is a really poor striker and can really only win at the UFC level via wrestling, and I just don’t see her getting Lemos down repeatedly here. Pass!

Sean Brady (-210) vs. Jake Matthews (+175)

Coming into the week, I expected to be interested in betting Jake Matthews as a sizable dog in this spot. Matthews has a wealth of UFC experience with fourteen UFC appearances under his belt at the age of 26. Stylistically, Matthews is gifted physically and has a well-rounded MMA game that doesn’t appear to have a ton of holes. However, the Australian has not been able to string together a run to legitimate contender status like some imagined he would, and some of that is due to cardio shortcomings. On the other end of the cardio spectrum, Sean Brady is an absolute machine. An undefeated prospect at 13-0 out of Philadelphia, Brady has been awesome since getting to the UFC and is 3-0. Brady is predominantly a wrestler with some unorthodox chokes and a very tight squeeze. I think this fight is likely close early, but Brady pulls away on cardio late. I was interested in playing a Fight Goes to Decision prop in this spot and FanDuel has a nice line at -156, but I, ultimately, do think one of these guys could find a choke should Brady push a hell-ish pace as I expect him to. This is a high-level fight, and I look forward to just enjoying it as a fan.

Carlos Ulberg (-255) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (+215)

Ulberg will be the first of three City Kickboxing pupils to fight on this UFC 259 card, as he makes his promotional debut in just his fourth professional MMA bout. Outside of MMA, Ulberg has a kickboxing background, which was on display in his Contender Series bout that he won via knockout. Nzechukwu also had a win in highlight fashion on the Contender Series a few years ago but has largely been unimpressive during his UFC tenure. He’s mostly a standup fighter with no offensive wrestling and a lack of speed or decent footwork. I expect Ulberg to chop the lead leg here and put on a kickboxing clinic for the most part, however, it’s a very steep ML price to pay for somebody with such little experience and not much tape should the fight hit the ground or something unforeseen happening. I considered playing the over here earlier in the week around -140 just because Ulberg is not a very urgent striker, Contender Series finish aside. However, the line moved closer to -170, and there aren’t a ton of data points to look at prior to making a bet here. I’m sitting this out and just looking to see if Ulberg is the real deal or perhaps a fade down the line.

Jordan Espinosa (-110) vs. Tim Elliott (-110)

Similar to Jake Matthews, I had entered this week thinking I would be interested in backing Espinosa in this fight. I’m generally high on Espinosa, he’s a plus athlete with quick hands and a wrestling background. This should be a good matchup for him on the feet, as he’s a better striker than Eliott, but after studying this fight, I would actually back the veteran in Elliott if forced to take a side. Espinosa does have that wrestling background I touched on and a 90% takedown defense in the UFC, but Elliott averages over 4 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and is very likely to spam takedowns in this matchup (over 8 takedowns attempted per 15 minutes). While Espinosa may be able to stop some shots from Elliott, it seems more than likely that this fight hits the ground at some point, and we’ve seen Espinosa go into panic mode on the mat several times within the UFC, most notably in his quick submission losses to Matt Schnell and Alex Perez. While Elliott has some elite competition he’s faced in the past and this matchup seems to be a favorable one, he is very difficult to bet on due to his low fight IQ and history of gassing out late in fights. If this stays standing, Espinosa should win, but the more this fight plays out on the ground, we have to favor Elliott if he has the stamina to go 15 minutes. The line is accurate in this one.

Kai Kara-France (-135) vs. Rogerio Bontorin (+115)

Kara-France is somebody who I’ve been low on throughout his UFC career. The New Zealand native isn’t bad, and has gone 4-2 throughout his UFC run, but has a style that leads to fights being very close and competitive. France is somebody who wins on extremely thin margins, as he’s a very good volume-based output fighte,r but he lacks real KO power, at least at the UFC level, and won’t ever look to use his grappling offensively.

Across the cage is Bontorin, who provides a style that is almost the exact opposite of France. Bontorin is 2-1 in the UFC, though that record is somewhat fortunate considering he was in a split decision and then had a win via cut stoppage in a fight he was likely losing. However, the Brazilian does have some tools at 125 pounds. He’s extremely strong, an active scrambler with good offensive grappling abilities, and has shown some takedown ability as well. The main knock against Bontorin has been his inability to win rounds on the feet, as he’s extremely low output.

Normally, I don’t like to bet on Kai Kara-France fights since they are so closely contested. France is a good striker, but it’s almost all empty volume, and at 125 pounds, almost everybody throws a ton of volume. However, the exception to that rule is Bontorin, who lands just 2.3 strikes per minute and has never won a UFC-level fight with his distance striking. I do think that Bontorin will look to wrestle in this matchup, he has to in order to win, but France has been a very good anti-grappler in the past where his 90% takedown defense has nullified his opponents wrestling approaches. If France can keep this on the feet he should win in a blowout based on volume, just because Bontorin is so unwilling to match a typical flyweight pace in the striking realm. Should Bontorin secure a takedown I expect France to work his way back up. Bontorin is a high-level grappler but France has had a good getup game in the past and I won’t let a submission loss to Royval when he was already rocked lead me astray here.

Bets

Kai Kara-France -125 1x until -135 (Placed Mar. 5)

Askar Askarov (-130) vs. Joseph Benavidez (+110)

Askarov entered the UFC with an undefeated record of 10-0 and despite facing a gauntlet of Brandon Moreno, Tim Elliot and Alexandre Pantoja to begin his UFC tenure, his record remains without a loss. Askarov had a competitive fight with Moreno that was scored a draw in his UFC debut, though many scored it for Moreno, and then he took care of Tim Elliot and out-grappled Pantoja, which was impressive. Askarov is primarily a grappler, though he’s also competent on the feet. He’s extremely strong for 125 and has shown the ability to take down nearly every opponent he has faced, and the ones he couldn’t take down, he ended up still winning the control time battle against. Question marks do remain about the Russian's game, as we have seen him slow down in fights before and also gotten hurt a few times, but I’ve been impressed to this point.

Benavidez is at a bizarre point in his career coming off his fourth career title fight loss in July. That fight was against the current king of flyweight, Deiveson Figueiredo, who demolished Benavidez for a second time and really dominated Joe B from the opening bell until the finish late in Round 1. Benavidez has now been knocked out in two consecutive fights and, at age 36, will likely never fight for UFC gold again. Stylistically, Benavidez is a bulldog in the cage who rushes at opponents and overwhelms them with body kicks and heavy hands for the 125-pound division. On the ground, Benavidez is one of the best scramblers in MMA history and has really only ever been out grappled by guys like Demetrious Johnson and Dominick Cruz.

If Benavidez was in his prime, he’d be a massive favorite in this spot. However, at 36 years old coming off of two KO losses, it’s clear that Benavidez is past his prime and that is very much factored into his line. Despite thinking that Benavidez has lost a step, to me, the losses to Figureido were more-so a matchup nightmare than anything. Benavidez puts his head down and tries to blitz opponents and that just wasn’t going to work against the most powerful flyweight of all time. However, power shouldn’t be too much of an issue in this fight against Askarov, and I do think Benavidez can bounce back. On the feet, the striking may be remotely competitive, but I expect Benavidez to win comfortably. He’s the more diverse striker with more power and has always been an extremely good minute-winner. On the ground is where things get fun because while I do think Askarov may be able to muscle his way to a takedown or two, Benavidez is such a good scrambler that it’s hard to imagine him ending up in too many bad positions. Barring Benavidez being totally shot and Askarov knocking him out (+800), I expect Benavidez to win the aggregate of striking exchanges and in order for Askarov to bank rounds, he’s going to need to control Benavidez for long periods of time, which we just haven’t seen in almost a decade. Additionally, Benavidez pushes a very aggressive pace, and Askarov has slowed down in fights before like the Moreno bout where he accepted bottom position in Round 3. On top of that, Askarov missed weight on Friday morning and looked completely dehydrated on the scales, which surely won't help in the cardio realm.

Bets

Joseph Benavidez +115 1.5x till +115, 1x till +100. (Placed Mar 3/Mar 5). I had originally bet Benavidez +113 1x on March 3rd, but added a half unit on March 5th following weigh-ins at +120.

Song Yadong (-155) vs. Kyler Philips (+135)

This seems to be a polarizing fight throughout the MMA community this week and unfortunately, I just don’t have too many strong opinions. Yadong has gotten some flack for being in competitive decisions that went his way but were very 50/50 against both Marlon Vera and Cody Stamann in his last two fights. However, Yadong remains just 23 years old and those are impressive top-15 wins no matter how competitive the bouts were. Stylistically, he has very fast hands and is a sniper on the feet. On the other side, we have Kyler Philips, who is 2-0 in the UFC and has really yet to be in a competitive fight. However, I like this kid's game a lot, he has decent kicks on the outside and is a high motor aggressive grappler as well, which should serve as an advantage for him in this fight. Yadong as a small favorite makes sense given his success against top-level guys in the UFC, but I’m not quite ready to fade Phillips. This will hopefully be a very fun fight, and we will get a real sense of where Philips is at in terms of a top 15 spot at this point. Pass in the betting market.

Casey Kenney (-140) vs. Dominick Cruz (+120)

Kenney has strung together a three-fight win streak and is 5-1 in the UFC. A former LFA champion, Kenney appears to have a high ceiling at 135 pounds. His only UFC loss is to Merab Dvalishvili, who is one of the toughest matchups in the division, and Kenney has some impressive wins against Ray Borg and fellow prospect Nathaniel Wood. Stylistically, Kenney is an extremely tough kid who will move forward and present his best offense from body and high kicks with his left leg. Kenney is a capable offensive wrestler as well and has really only been taken down by Borg and Dvalishvili, who take everybody down. I had some questions in the past about Kenney’s cardio, but he proved a lot in the third round against Wood last October, and I'm fairly confident he will be just fine in three-round fights.

Cruz is an MMA legend and perhaps the best bantamweight of all time, but he hasn’t won a fight since 2016 and will be looking to rebound from a KO loss to Henry Cejudo in his last time out. It’s been an extreme layoff for Cruz with multiple injuries since defeating Urijah Faber in 2016, Cruz has entered the octagon just twice since then. Throughout his career, Cruz has been one of the most unorthodox fighters we’ve come across. He is a master of lateral movement with footwork that has yet to really be seen from anybody besides him. Because of that, Cruz was a master at avoiding strikes with a 73% striking defense and has been an extremely efficient wrestler with a little bit over a takedown per round on average in addition to an 83% takedown defense.

It feels like the young up and comer versus the former champions is a recurring theme throughout this card, and much like Joe Benavidez, I like Dominick Cruz to get a win on Saturday night. On the feet, Kenney hits much harder than Cruz, but Cruz is a master of evasion and footwork, and we’ve seen Kenney get frustrated with his opponent's movements many times before and has a tendency to follow opponents around the cage, as opposed to cutting off the cage and pinning his opponents against the cage. When Cruz is able to do that against his foes, he sets up his striking on weird timing patterns and can also wrestle successfully. Cruz is a veteran of the game with an astronomically high fight IQ and should be able to win the striking on movement and defense, and then steal rounds with late takedowns. Kenney is a capable wrestler, but I do expect Cruz to take the path of least resistance and try to expose that 56% takedown defense. This is a coin-flip fight and I’ll take the plus money on the more experienced fighter.

Bets

Dominick Cruz +122 1x till +110. (Placed Mar. 2)

Aleksandar Rakic (-160) vs. Thiago Santos (+140)

Rakic is one of the “new-wave” 205 pounders who is on the rise and should be competing for UFC gold sometime in the next few years. The Austrian striker is extremely long for the division at 6-foot-5 with a 78-inch reach. Rakic does make the most of his size, keeping distance with a strong kicking attack that has been on display in wins over Jimi Manuwa and Anthony Smith in the last few years. Rakic’s defense is still a little green at times, and we’ve seen a few troubling sequences like getting rocked against Devin Clark, but he is certainly a plus striker with plus athleticism. In terms of wrestling, Rakic averages more than one takedown attempt per round and although his accuracy is only 28%, he’s shown a strong ability to ride out top position and win minutes on the ground without taking too many risks.

Santos is one of the most powerful men in the UFC but has dropped consecutive fights vs. Jon Jones (admirable effort in a split decision with both legs compromised) and Glover Teixeira. Santos hits extremely hard and does land a decent amount of volume for a man his size. However, his ground game was completely exploited versus Teixeira, who was able to come back from being rocked multiple times to get in dominant positions over Santos. While Santos is a fun action fighter and was able to compete in the past with Jones, the grappling defense we've seen has been a massive red flag.

While it might not be the most fun sweat of the night, I like the over 1.5 rounds in this fight. Things will be volatile on the feet with Rakic looking to keep distance with kicks and Santos throwing heavy leather in return as he tries to close the distance, but I think Rakic can sneakily slow down the fight. I mentioned how Rakic hasn’t been afraid to ride out top position and shoot takedowns before, and this is a perfect spot to do this against the 64% takedown defense of Santos. Also, while Rakic has a few highlight finishes in the UFC, I don’t fully buy his finishing ability as some massive threat. Four of Rakic’s six UFC fights have gone to decision and Santos has been over 1.5 rounds in five of his eight fights since moving up to 205. I like this play from a number and subjective reasoning standpoint alike. Expect Rakic to slow things down early and then hopefully we can avoid a KO for a few more minutes.

Bets

Aleksandar Rakic/Thiago Santos Over 1.5 Rounds

Islam Makhachev (-400) vs. Drew Dober (+330)

Makhachev has had a lot of pressure put on him to be the eventual heir to Khabib Nurmagomedov's throne as a wrestling-heavy lightweight from Dagestan. While any comparison to Khabib is unfair, I certainly understand the hype surrounding Islam. He is 7-1 in the UFC with the only loss being a first-round knockout defeat to Adriano Martins in 2015. Makhachev is a very efficient wrestler with 3.4 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 68% accuracy rate on attempted shots. Once on top, he isn’t a massive risk taker but is very good on top. In the striking realm, Makhachev has certainly improved with his distance management and offensive striking, but what’s most impressive is his defensive striking. As it stands now through a decent sample, Makhachev has absorbed less than twelve strikes per 15 minutes. That’s roughly four punches absorbed per round, which is madness. While Makhachev hasn’t necessarily fought anybody in the top 15 yet, it’s clear that he’s a special talent.

Dober is one of my favorite action fighters in the sport and somebody who I’ve made a good amount of money backing. He’s currently on a three-fight win streak with victories over Marco Polo Reyes, Nasrat Haqparast and, most recently, Alexander Hernandez. All of those wins have come inside the first two rounds, and Dober seems to be in the best form of his career. Dober has a lot of power at 155 pounds and will throw in bunches, but he is certainly a flawed fighter to some extent when the fight leaves the feet. He has just a 58% takedown defense and has lost a lot of fights in the grappling realm.

While Dober hits hard and certainly has a puncher's chance early, this is a nightmare matchup for him. I expect Islam to finish pretty much any takedown he attempts and not give up top control. There’s just very little win equity for Dober outside of an early KO against a guy who’s historically been very defensively sound. On the ground, Dober grows frustrated oftentimes and instead of accepting the position he tries to get up, which is a good idea, but the American often gives up his back to opponents. Dober has been submitted in his last three losses because of his impatience after getting taken down. I took a shot on Makhachev SUB +450, he’s not going to be ripping off a ton of attempts but I do think Dober gives him plenty of opportunities to sink in a choke. I also played Islam -3.5 -210 on the points handicap, which means he needs to win via finish or any decision better than 30-27, 29-28x2 for my bet to cash. I feel confident that Makhachev dominates here.

Bets

Islam Makhachev -3.5 Points Handicap -210 1x until -250. (Placed Mar. 5)
Islam Makhachev via Submission +450 0.5x until +350 (Placed Mar. 4)

Peter Yan -120 vs Aljamain Sterling +100

Yan will be looking to defend his bantamweight title for the first time this weekend after defeating Jose Aldo for the vacant belt last July on Fight Island. Yan has had a pretty unblemished run to the title with a 7-0 UFC record and the Russian only has one professional loss in 2016 to Magomed Magomedov. Yan is predominantly a striker who comes on strong late in fights and is a sniper on the feet who racks up damage through accumulation and attrition. Pretty much everything about Yan’s profile checks out as an elite fighter, but it is worth noting that his best UFC win is likely Jimmie Rivera in what was a very competitive fight and that he has fought an unusually easy schedule for somebody who holds a belt within the UFC.

Sterling finally will be getting his shot at UFC gold coming off a highlight reel finish of Cory Sandhagen last summer. “Aljo” holds a five-fight win streak with names like Pedro Munhoz, Jimmie Rivera, Cody Stamann and Sandhagen all on the record. Since losing to Marlon Moraes in brutal KO fashion back in 2017, Sterling has not lost a single round in the UFC. Stylistically, Sterling is one of the most unorthodox strikers in MMA, as he implements a heavy kicking game to set up his hands and disrupt opponents' timing. While Aljo is an above-average striker, his main strength comes on the ground where he has four UFC submissions and averages just about two takedowns per 15 minutes with a high-level black belt in MMA grappling (that’s not actually a thing, but Aljo is one of the best wrestler/grappler combinations in MMA, so I made it a thing).

This is the people’s main event. There have been strong takes coming from people backing both sides here, and unlike some other spots on the card, I am ready to plant my flag firmly with team Aljamain Sterling. I bet Sterling a few weeks ago at +142 for 2.5 units and am very happy with my position. While it’s fairly common knowledge that Aljo is the better wrestler in this fight, I think his striking is being severely underrated. While many are just assuming Yan will win the aggregate of striking clashes, I think this fight is nearly 50/50 on the feet. Sterling is an ELITE defensive striker, absorbing less than two strikes per minute. His performances against Munhoz and Rivera were a perfect example of him turning his offense into defense, with opponents being thrown off by his timing and volume heavy attack, leaving them unable to fire much back. I think Sterling can win this fight via early submission with a back take, but he’s also very competitive in striking for 25 minutes. That said, Yan is the more polished technical boxer here and as somebody who typically comes on late in fights, I would not be surprised to see him winning standing exchanges down the stretch.

I think Sterling mixes things up here and likely front-runs a bit with Yan coming back down the stretch. Ultimately though, I view the striking as fairly even and give Sterling a pretty substantial grappling edge should this fight hit the ground, which I think it will. I don’t make Sterling a massive favorite or anything like that, but he deserves to be lined >50% in this spot and I think he finally claims the throne as the best bantamweight on planet earth come Saturday.

Amanda Nunes (-1,200) vs. Megan Anderson (+650)

Look, this article is already plenty long and I don’t want to waste your time as a reader burying the lede. I bet Megan Anderson. My reasoning is fairly simple and elementary: Anderson is the only real 145-pound striker that Nunes has fought outside of Cyborg, and I think her power and length can give Nunes problems should they brawl it out on the feet. That said, Nunes should be able to win this fight via the ground at any point she wants, but we’ve seen Nunes gas out before and also be pretty hittable against strikers like Germaine de Randamie. At +880 I do think Anderson has a legitimate puncher's chance should this play out on the feet for any amount of time, and I’m happy to back her against Nunes, who is a dominant force but often overrated in my eyes, and I do think that just blind fading Nunes at her current market prices will be +EV for the foreseeable future until she losses. Is that loss coming this weekend? Probably not, but Anderson also shouldn’t be +880 with the physical tools she brings.

Bets

Megan Anderson +850 0.5x till +650 (Bet Mar. 2)
Megan Anderson via KO in Round 1 +4000 0.1x till 25/1. (Bet Mar. 2)

Israel Adesanya (-235) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+200)

In our main event of UFC 259, we have Israel Adesanya moving up from his spot atop the 185-pound division to challenge defending champion Jan Blachowicz for the 205-pound light-heavyweight belt. Adesanya is a perfect 20-0 in MMA and has had a relatively flawless run throughout the UFC with wins over names like Marvin Vettori, Derek Brunson, Robert Whittaker, Yoel Romero and, most recently, Paulo Costa in September. Adesanya is a former kickboxer and a master of distance striking with some absurd metrics at range on the feet. Jan Blachowicz has a great resurgence story within the UFC and has now racked up four consecutive wins, including a title fight win over Dominick Reyes in his last bout on the same night Adesanya knocked out Costa. After losing four of five during a stretch from 2015-2017, Blachowicz has won eight of his last nine.

Stylistically, this is a pretty good matchup for Adesanya. He is a much faster, more well-polished striker. While Blachowicz has had a career resurgence, he is still very much the product of a depleted 205-pound division in my eyes and is mostly power-reliant without great movement or volume. The major question in this fight is how will Adesanya deal with the size disadvantage of weighing in at 201 pounds when his opponent will likely be around 230 pounds come Saturday night. Blachowicz has a black belt in BJJ and if he was a more willing wrestler, I think the size differential would make things interesting in this matchup, but I honestly just think Adesanya is too fast and mobile for Blachowicz to have much success outside of a potential one-punch knockout. I could see this fight starting off very slow, as Adesanya is sometimes hesitant to lead the dance and Blachowicz may take a little while to warm up. If Blachowicz blitzes Adesanya, I think we see an early finish, but if Blachowicz sits back, I just expect Adesanya to beat up his leg for 25 minutes and coast to a decision victory. No bet here.

The next major MMA event takes place on Saturday night, with UFC 259 live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

The main event features light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz battling middleweight titlist Israel Adesanya.

As always with a UFC event, there are certainly plenty of bets to be made. Let's take a look at some of them.

UFC 259 odds for Blachowicz vs. Adesanya

Israel Adesanya: -250
Jan Blachowicz: +210

(All odds via BetMGM)

BetMGM has Adesanya installed as a surprisingly huge favorite — as of Tuesday, he comes in at -250, meaning you'd need to bet $250 to win $100. Meanwhile, Blachowicz is a +210, meaning if you pluck down $100, you will win $210.

Blachowicz's (27-8) enters his first title defense having reeled off four consecutive victories, highlighted off by running through Dominick Reyes via second-round TKO at UFC 253 to win the vacant light heavyweight championship and capture UFC gold for the first time. It appeared former 205-pound title challenger Glover Teixeira would be next for the native of Poland, but a surprising name emerged into the conversation.

Adesanya (20-0) won the interim belt in a back-and-forth war against Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 236 in April 2019. Six months later at UFC 243, Adesanya knocked out Robert Whittaker in the second round to become the undisputed champion. 'The Last Style Bender' last fought on the same show as Blachowicz when he thrashed Paulo Costa via second-round TKO. Instead of taking a rematch against former 185-pound champion Robert Whittaker, Adesanya wanted a new challenge. He had a meeting with UFC president Dana White and expressed his desire to move up and challenge Blachowicz.

And here we are.

Despite the shockingly wide odds, this is a closer fight than the numbers are indicating. There's no question how great of a competitor Adesanya is. He's undefeated for a reason. Out of his 20 wins (last 10 in the UFC), Adesanya' won 15 of those via stoppage (five in the UFC). Look at what he did to the previously unbeaten Costa. He had the Brazilian on his back foot throughout and reluctant to use his impressive punching power.

Online Betting Ufc

Blachowicz is no joke. He started his UFC run by 1-2. Being on the verge of possibly getting his walking papers, Blachowicz went on a torrid stretch by winning seven of his next fights, with five of those wins coming via stoppage (two submissions, three knockouts).

Because Adesanya's looked this good at middleweight doesn't mean his excellent skills will resonate at light heavyweight. There are weight classes for a reason. The only advantage that Adesanya possesses is in the speed department. You have to give Blachowicz the edge in power and if he can get Adesanya on the ground.

For Adesanya to win, he's going to have to be like a surgeon. He needs to be tactical and pick his spots at range. Getting into a clinch situation does him no good because Blachowicz could take him down, blast him with the strong left hand, or grind him to the point of exhaustion because of his significant weight advantage.

For Blachowicz, he needs to do what brought him to the big stage. He's got massive power in both hands and a better-than-average ground attack. If he can avoid or block Adesanya's leg kicks, it should be an easy night at the office.

When it's all said and done, the power and weight will be too much for 'The Last Style Bender,' and Blachowicz is going to use his 'Polish Power' to retain the light heavyweight title and hand Adesanya his first professional defeat.

Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya prediction

Muehlhausen pick: Jan Blachowicz
Best odds: Jan Blachowicz to win by KO/TKO, DQ or submission: +340

Ufc Rounds Time

More Blachowicz vs. Adesanya odds

Total number or rounds: over/under

• Over 1.5: -250
• Under 1.5: +195

Will the fight go the distance?

• Yes: +170
• No: -200

Method of victory

• Adesanya by KO/TKO/DQ: +115
• Adesanya by submission: +1900
• Adesanya by decision: +250
• Tie/technical tie: +5000
• Blachowicz by KO/TKO/DQ: +500
• Blachowicz by submission: +650
• Blachowicz by decision: +900